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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still